AGP Executive Report

Johannesburg Politics: With at least 10 parties naming mayoral candidates, Johannesburg’s municipal race is turning into the country’s most watched contest, with the ANC still to confirm its pick and the eventual mayor chosen by councillors after coalition talks. Gauteng Education: Oprah Winfrey’s Leadership Academy for Girls will close its Gauteng campus after 20 years, with the site to be transferred to the Gauteng Department of Education after 2027 and the model shifting to a nationwide scholarship programme. Tax & Crime: SARS and the Hawks seized 26,000 litres of 96% ethanol in Kempton Park, alleging an illicit alcohol operation that could mean about R9.1m in tax losses. Retail & Consumer Pressure: Woolworths flagged slower second-half growth, blaming Middle East-linked fuel and inflation pressures plus higher interest rates. Health & Pharma: Three SA firms are shortlisted to make Gilead’s twice-yearly HIV prevention injection lenacapavir, as pressure mounts to expand access. Steel & Industry: ArcelorMittal South Africa widened its interim loss to R1.49bn, citing weak steel prices and import pressure. Food & Environment: Low anchovy and sardine landings are forcing fishmeal and fish oil firms to adapt, with Oceana reporting a sharp production drop. Business & Finance: A new piece of local fintech thinking argues township businesses with proven track records are still treated like grant recipients, not bankable companies. Commonwealth Games: Day 7 in Glasgow kicks off track cycling at the Sir Chris Hoy Velodrome, with multiple gold medal events on the schedule.

Competition Watch: The Competition Commission is pushing ahead with its franchise market inquiry, with a 7 August comment deadline on draft terms of reference after complaints about franchisors not passing on supplier discounts, forcing non-negotiable pricing and using misleading projections. Mining & Markets: Valterra’s H1 results show a dramatic PGM rebound, with headline earnings jumping to R21.5bn and a big chunk of the windfall flowing to National Treasury, underscoring how platinum prices and weather-driven recovery at Amandelbult are feeding SA’s broader economy. B-BBEE Update: A new BB-BBEE Commission report says compliance improved over the past decade but lost momentum after Covid-19, flagging gains, stagnation and where transformation needs acceleration. Justice & Courts: Johannesburg’s Gauteng High Court dismissed businessman Brown Mogotsi’s urgent bail appeal, keeping him in custody as his criminal case continues. Migration & Safety: Christian leaders are stepping up efforts to calm anti-migrant unrest and discourage vigilante violence after weeks of attacks that have displaced large numbers of foreign nationals. Global Macro: Wall Street slid sharply after the Fed left rates unchanged, adding to risk-off pressure that can spill into SA markets.

Youth & Jobs: The African Youth Survey 2026 shows young Africans are more optimistic overall, but South Africans remain among the most pessimistic, with 69% saying Africa is moving the wrong way—while KZN pushes a spaza-shop plan to tackle youth unemployment through market access, spaza support and last-mile delivery partnerships with Uber, Shoprite and Takealot. Elections & Democracy: An IEC seminar asks why citizens vote when they feel elections don’t deliver, pointing to disaffection and a lack of parity between voters and decision-makers. Johannesburg Business Pulse: Police raided Joburg CBD businesses in a counterfeit crackdown, seizing items including clothing, sports gear and electronics, as illicit trade is estimated to cost the economy about R100bn a year. Corporate & Markets: AMSA warned its interim losses will widen, while Valterra Platinum posted a major earnings surge and declared a R15bn interim dividend. Municipal Finance: Parliament welcomed Treasury’s release of R7.1bn in withheld municipal funds to 49 municipalities, with service delivery protected but compliance conditions attached. Health & Medtech: WHX Johannesburg is set to intensify competition for South Africa’s R18.4bn medical device market as global medtech firms target procurement and distributor networks. Energy & Cost Pressures: Food prices rose in July, and the SARB’s leading indicator slipped again—adding to pressure on households and SMEs.

Governance & Municipal Finance: Johannesburg Water was left with a zero balance after the City of Johannesburg drained R3.4bn from its account on 30 June, stalling projects and forcing creditors to wait—ringfencing began 1 July and the utility still faces a R1.8bn creditor bill. Roads Procurement Accountability: Sanral admitted its routine road maintenance procurement process was flawed after a High Court ruling declared an RRM tender award unconstitutional and unlawful, and said it is changing its approach. State-Owned Crisis Management: The Public Investment Corporation is seeking private service providers to help “culture-transform” after a governance meltdown that saw suspensions, resignations and leadership turmoil. Mining Earnings Shock: Kumba Iron Ore reported headline earnings per share down 41% for the half year to June, blaming a stronger rand, weather disruptions and higher input costs. Trade Policy: ITAC backed higher tariffs on imported peanut butter, recommending a move from 99c/kg to 20% ad valorem to protect local production. Aviation & Connectivity: AFRAA says domestic flights drive Africa’s passenger traffic, with Johannesburg’s OR Tambo leading intra-African connectivity. Jobs & Skills: Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi launched a Human Resource Development Council to build a jobs pathway and align skills with the economy. Security & Tech: Nelson Mandela Bay rolled out drone tech to help police crack down on perlemoen poaching. Business & Consumer: Alexforbes turned more cautious on SA equities for H2, favouring banks and insurers while warning of volatility and weaker resource support.

Municipal Accountability: Johannesburg referred 13 alleged financial misconduct cases worth about R4.07bn to its independent Disciplinary Board, covering unauthorised, irregular, fruitless and wasteful expenditure—allegations only, with due process still to follow. Municipal Cashflow Pressure: National Treasury will start releasing remaining withheld municipal funding from end-July after monitoring 69 municipalities; some already got full allocations, but compliance with the MFMA still matters. Labour Impact: SAMWU says unpaid salaries are hitting municipal workers after Treasury funding cuts, warning the situation could worsen if problems aren’t resolved. Water & Service Strain: Gauteng Health disputes claims of a dialysis consumables crisis at Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital, saying care continued via contingency measures—while the DA alleges shortages forced borrowing supplies. Local Government Politics: The EFF doubles down on its “Victory or Death” message ahead of 2026 local elections, arguing municipalities are collapsing and voters must reclaim control. Small Business & Migration Tensions: KZN premier says 57.8% of spaza shops are foreign-owned, with eThekwini the biggest concentration—fueling debate on who owns and runs informal retail. Energy & Costs: Fuel price outlook points to bad news for diesel customers as oil market volatility and under-recoveries feed through to prices. Tech & AI Push: Huawei unveiled an upgraded intelligent network for Southern Africa, while Cassava Technologies argues Africa needs sovereign AI infrastructure so value from data and models stays on the continent. Retail Tech: Zoho launched a South African POS solution for local retailers, including offline support and VAT-ready features. Food Security & Trade: SA Canegrowers warns sugar imports nearly doubled in early 2026, calling for tariff protection updates to stop local sales collapsing.

Courtroom Corruption: A Gauteng High Court heard how ex-defence minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula allegedly leaned on confidante Nombasa Ntsondwa-Ndhlovu for political and “throw the bones” guidance as her SANDF tender corruption case continues. Skills Overhaul: South Africa’s QCTO rollout is reshaping skills development from 1 July, with longer, more structured occupational programmes that raise planning and cost demands for employers. Mining Safety: Impala Platinum has paused Rustenburg operations for a “safety reset” after two fatal underground locomotive accidents, despite sensor-equipped systems. Public Funds Freeze: The SIU secured an interim order freezing properties linked to former Prasa boss Lucky Montana over a Prasa contractor’s alleged role in R5.6bn security contracts. Xenophobia Diplomacy: Nigeria urged South Africa to do more to stop xenophobic attacks on Nigerians, citing evacuations and deaths, as talks continue in Abuja. Markets & Money: Anchor Capital says external factors are driving the JSE, staying constructive on banks and selective food retailers while the rand remains resilient. Health & Giving: Mzansi has raised about R90,000 for kwaito star L’vovo Derrango’s stroke recovery after a public appeal. Trade & Agriculture: South Africa’s export push remains key for long-term agriculture growth, but needs stronger trade capability and economic diplomacy.

Water Crisis Crackdown: President Cyril Ramaphosa says the National Water Action Plan will be enforced with targeted municipal support, legal action against non-compliant councils, and a new National Water Crisis Committee (WATERCOM) to track delivery and accountability. City Finance Pressure: Johannesburg has paid Eskom R4.3bn towards electricity debt, but an overdue balance remains and Eskom says the current account is due 3 August. Procurement Under Fire: SANRAL’s R9.5bn routine road maintenance tender was set aside by the Pretoria High Court as unconstitutional and unlawful, with a stakeholder session planned for bidders. Local Business Momentum: Jozi My Jozi’s Walk the Talk drew 25,000 participants and organisers want people to return to the CBD to support inner-city businesses. Industry Stress: SA Canegrowers warns the sugar sector is in crisis as imports nearly double year-on-year, urging faster tariff updates. Transport Disruption Watch: A Gauteng taxi strike looms over operating licence backlogs, with the MEC denying delays and the alliance threatening a shutdown. Consumer & Mobility: TotalEnergies launches 45c-per-litre fuel cashback for Club members, while Ford recalls certain Ranger and Everest models over a transmission fluid pump gear risk. Policy Meets Trade: South Africa plans regulations to prohibit goods made with forced labour and child labour after US tariff pressure. Entrepreneurship: Bro Cabs launches in Johannesburg with a subscription model so drivers keep 100% of trip earnings.

Migration Crackdown Watch: South Africa has scaled down Musina’s repatriation centre after deporting/voluntarily returning 68,000+ people, cutting capacity from 20,000 to 1,500 as migration rates decline. Border Trade: Congestion at Beitbridge is being blamed on Zimbabwe-side parking constraints and abnormal-load vehicles, with BMA and SARS saying SA operations are running normally. Monetary Policy: The SARB held the repo rate at 7%, arguing inflation is still too high but growth is weak—while warning the pause may be temporary amid global shocks. Manufacturing & Procurement: Business leaders say SA’s manufacturing slump can be reversed with smarter localisation and steadier procurement rules, while procurement salaries rose 10.2% as firms compete for scarce skills. Energy Transition: Virtual power plants are gaining traction as rooftop solar and batteries grow, but regulation will decide whether households become a flexible grid resource. Tech & Payments: KB Kookmin Bank plans blockchain-based trade payments via JPMorgan’s Kinexys in August, initially supporting US-dollar flows including South Africa. Local STEM: Midrand pupil Ragini Buhle Pillay was selected as SA’s only Mission ShakthiSAT participant for a space mission in India. Culture & Youth: EFF marked its 13th anniversary with a manifesto push on youth jobs and free basic services, while WAFCON ramps up in Morocco with South Africa among the contenders.

Police & Governance: Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia says South Africa’s policing reset will target 140 high-priority precincts first, using intelligence-led operations to hit organised gangs and restore public confidence. City Accountability: The City of Johannesburg has approved referral of 13 alleged financial misconduct cases worth about R4bn to its independent disciplinary board, with updates expected next month. Local Elections Politics: The EFF is ramping up for November’s local government elections, unveiling mayoral candidates including Tlaleng Mofokeng for Joburg and Omphile Maotwe for Tshwane. Crime & Security: Police arrested the alleged mastermind behind the murder of DA candidate Sinovuyo Dyokwe in Dunoon, with extortion reportedly linked to the motive. Migration Pressure on Business: South African farms and factories are scrambling after a foreign worker exodus tied to anti-migrant protests and enforcement, with unpicked crops and struggling production reported. Energy & Industry: A “gas cliff” warning highlights how looming gas supply risks could hit Sasol operations and broader manufacturing competitiveness. Health Manufacturing: The AfDB approved up to $15m (R250m) for Biovac to expand vaccine production in Cape Town, aiming to reduce reliance on imports. Road Safety Crackdown: In Pietermaritzburg, 11 trucks were impounded in a crackdown on traffic violations, including worn tyres and fraudulent roadworthiness documents. SASSA Update: New amendments to August 2026 SASSA Children’s Grants adjust income eligibility (including higher thresholds for child support) ahead of the 6 August payment date.

Border bottlenecks: A new study warns SA’s cross-border chaos is costing the economy about R15bn–R16bn a year, with trucks stuck for days at key gateways like Beitbridge and Lebombo, piling up wages, fuel and finance costs. US trade pressure: The US has slapped South Africa with its highest 12.5% tariff category over forced-labour claims, but an opinion piece argues SA has no verifiable cases in its export supply chains and says jobs and R108bn in exports are at risk. Immigration and business risk: Reports of intimidation targeting a Zambian logistics firm operating in Johannesburg are circulating, raising fresh concerns about rule of law and cross-border trade safety. Health systems: An Africa Health Security index finds the continent is nearly 30% more prepared than five years ago, but still averages just 41.5/100, with major gaps that could turn outbreaks into disasters. Local governance & services: Cape Town’s council chamber controversy and Johannesburg Roads’ low-priority traffic lights both underline how municipal decisions shape everyday life. Sports & money: FIFA says the 2026 World Cup prize pool is a record $727m, while SA’s hockey funding drama shows how quickly costs can land on government.

SAPS costs clarified: Government pushed back on claims that senior SAPS managers earn R5m a year, saying R1.331bn in 2025/26 covers salaries plus allowances and state pension/medical contributions for 722 senior officials. Joburg-Eskom debt: City of Johannesburg has paid R4.3bn towards Eskom electricity arrears, with a court-backed plan to settle a total R5.12bn by 21 August. Phala Phala politics: A Western Cape High Court paused Parliament’s Section 89 impeachment hearings pending Ramaphosa’s legal challenge, but analysts say pressure remains. Madlanga Commission delay: The commission reserved judgment after arguments over whether North West businessman Suliman Carrim gets an open-ended postponement or a fixed return date for medical fitness. Municipal funding squeeze: SAMWU says Treasury withheld equitable share from multiple municipalities, leaving workers facing delayed or unpaid salaries and threatening service delivery. Digital finance trust: Bridgforte will launch a new policy report on trust architecture for platform-led digital finance, with SARB deputy governor Nomfundo Tshazibana set to keynote. Education basics: Basic Education data shows public schools still need 1.9m pieces of learner furniture across 7,166 schools, with Gauteng among the biggest gaps. Small Claims Court: The limit rises to R30,000 from 1 August 2026, expanding access to faster, cheaper civil claims. Halal trade link: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim says Ramaphosa and other leaders want cooperation to obtain Malaysia’s internationally recognised halal certification. Xenophobia diplomacy: Ghana’s Mahama raised xenophobic attacks on Africans in South Africa with the AU Commission, seeking formal AU action.

Trade & Finance: Afreximbank and South Africa’s IDC signed an $8bn MoU to back industrial development and intra-Africa trade finance. Markets: The rand steadied after hitting its weakest level in two months, as the SARB held rates at 7% and warned Middle East risks could lift oil and fertiliser costs. Policy & Governance: Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana accepted PIC board chair David Masondo’s resignation and will appoint an interim board to stabilise the asset manager amid governance probes. Rates & Housing: The repo-rate hold offered short-term relief to homeowners and buyers, but economists say the cycle isn’t over as inflation risks remain elevated. Digital Economy: Digitax says Nigeria’s e-invoicing push is nearing its July 31 deadline, with non-compliance risking VAT input reclaim problems across supply chains. Migration & Business Climate: Standard Bank warned against overly restrictive migration rules, while a new report argues immigrants are only 6.5% of the population but contribute 9% to GDP. Court Watch: The Western Cape High Court paused Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala impeachment hearings pending a review application. Tech & Fraud: INETCO launched an AI-assisted fraud investigation module aimed at speeding up case work while keeping analysts in control.

US Tariffs Bite SA Exports: Washington has imposed new Section 301 forced-labour tariffs on South African goods, adding a 12.5% duty on affected exports and raising fresh competitiveness fears. Rand Under Pressure: The rand slid after the SARB held rates at 7%, with the dollar strengthening on higher US yields and renewed trade-war risk. Trusted Employer Scheme Boost: Home Affairs expanded the Trusted Employer Scheme to speed visas for investors and skilled workers, using a risk-based approach and an online process linked to the ETA platform. Water Crisis Funding Push: Ramaphosa released the National Water Action Plan, calling for infrastructure investment, legal reforms and anti-corruption action, with private capital to help close the backlog. Township Digital Inclusion: Communications minister Solly Malatsi warned against “digital inequality”, arguing townships—not geography—should define SA’s tech future. Skills Governance Crackdown: Buti Manamela warned SETAs that obstructing oversight or misusing funds will face consequences. Job Creation on the Ground: In Diepsloot and nearby areas, community-led engagement helped place more unemployed residents into jobs, with plans to challenge suspected immigration and labour violations. Crime & Courts: A security boss accused of seven murders will only go to trial in February after a delay. Logistics Cost Shock: A study estimates cross-border disruption costs SA up to R16bn a year, with border delays measured in days.

Monetary Policy: The SARB kept the repo rate at 7% despite June inflation hitting 5%, with Governor Kganyago warning growth is still weak and municipal dysfunction is a drag. PIC Shake-up: Deputy finance minister David Masondo resigned as PIC chair as governance scrutiny deepens after the CEO was suspended and multiple board resignations followed. Markets & FX: The rand slid after the unexpected rate hold, while global stocks fell as oil spiked above $100 amid Iran-war escalation. Trade & Tariffs: The US announced new forced-labour tariffs (10%–12.5%) replacing earlier emergency duties struck down by the Supreme Court. Xenophobia & Migration: Cape Town saw anti-immigration protests under heavy police guard, while Ghana’s Adina described panic and backlash after xenophobic tensions. Digital Economy: TikTok creator funding eligibility is back on the agenda as the minister pushes for fair pay for South African creators. Ports & Logistics: Transnet launched a 25-year concession bidding process for Cape Town’s Duncan Dock multi-purpose terminal. Connectivity: MTN earmarked R150m for North West network upgrades to boost 4G/5G coverage. Women’s Economic Push: The Women’s Month 2026 launch kicks off with an EmpowerHer Market Trade Fair in Durban.

Young Homebuyers, Late Starts: Lightstone research shows under-35s are taking a smaller share of home purchases, mainly because affordability is pushing first-time buying further into later life. Consumer Spending Holds Up: Stats SA retail trade sales rose 2.4% in real terms in May, but economists warn higher fuel and transport costs tied to the Iran conflict could squeeze budgets ahead. Inflation Hits 5% and Rate Hike Bets Rise: June CPI jumped to 5%, with transport the biggest driver, putting pressure on the SARB to lift rates again at today’s MPC. Pay Squeezed by Prices: PayInc says average net salaries edged up 0.4% in June, yet inflation outpaced wages, leaving real take-home pay at a two-year low. AARTO Compliance for Fleets: AARTO now applies in 62 municipalities, linking company vehicle fines to BRNs via eNaTIS, forcing businesses to tighten driver and payments processes. Border Crackdown on Counterfeits: The NCC and BMA signed up to stop unsafe, counterfeit and illicit goods at ports, including via e-commerce and courier channels. Joburg Property Market Pressure: A CapeTalk listener’s “first home” story highlights how today’s prices make similar deals far harder for younger buyers. MTN Chair on Migration: MTN’s Mcebisi Jonas says anti-immigrant violence threatens Africa’s integration and argues the real issue is exclusion and weak growth, not migration itself.

Inflation Watch: South Africa’s consumer inflation hit 5.0% in June, keeping rate-hike pressure on the Reserve Bank as households feel the squeeze. Food Prices: Food inflation eased to 1.4% in June, helped by a strong grain harvest, though economists warn oil prices and El Niño risks could bite later. Banking Deal: Nedbank says it has secured its targeted 66% stake in Kenya’s NCBA after shareholders accepted its takeover offer for nearly 80% of issued shares. Student Funding: Parliament defended the NSFAS accommodation cap as SRCs from 10 universities push to scrap it, arguing pricing rules are driving debt and eviction threats. Immigration & Business Risk: Former Public Protector Thuli Madonsela urged government and employers to enforce immigration law “compassionately” to curb violence against undocumented migrants and protect investor confidence. Local Defence Readiness: SANDF accommodation shortages are forcing troops to live far from bases, raising operational readiness concerns. Sports Business: CAF opened bidding for AFCON 2028, 2032 and 2036, with South Africa and Botswana among those signalling interest. Global Markets: Wall Street closed modestly lower as profit-taking hit tech-led trading.