AGP Executive Report

Rugby & Tickets: SA Rugby pushed back on “erroneous” claims Ellis Park would be far from full for the Springboks’ Nations Championship opener vs England in Johannesburg. Xenophobia & Migration: Zimbabweans are being bused back after anti-foreigner violence and threats ahead of the 30 June deadline, with reports of exhausted families arriving at Beitbridge and concerns about humanitarian conditions. Policy & Housing: South Africa’s Constitutional Court struck down the Western Cape’s Tafelberg property sale as unlawful for poor public participation, prompting COSATU to demand accountability. Business Pulse: The S&P Global PMI edged up to 50.5 in June as hiring stayed resilient, but output and new orders still fell. Solar & Power Markets: SAPVIA says SA crossed 10GW of cumulative solar PV capacity, and asks what comes next for gigawatt-scale growth. Insurance & Consumer Costs: Santam launched an AI-powered home companion (Jess) via Kandua, plus a Santam CashBack programme rewarding claim-free policyholders. Trade & Industry: Sephaku Cement warned imports are pressuring the market as infrastructure demand stays weak. Energy & Jobs: Transalloys suspended operations at SA’s last manganese smelter, warning permanent closure could follow without urgent Eskom/government action. Tax & Travel: SARS introduced a mandatory online traveller declaration for entering or leaving SA, due within 24 hours of departure.

Women’s Cricket: England beat South Africa by 40 runs to reach the Women’s T20 World Cup final, with Nat Sciver-Brunt returning from injury to top-score and set up a blockbuster clash against Australia at Lord’s. Banking & Household Finance: FNB has removed initiation fees on its Credit Switch debt consolidation solution, aiming to make it easier for pressured customers to simplify repayments and improve monthly cash flow. Retail Tech: Pick n Pay launched “Penny”, an AI shopping assistant powered by Google’s Gemini, letting customers build grocery orders via voice, text or photos as it pushes to strengthen its online turnaround. Migration & Business Risk: Reports point to a paid online influence push around South Africa’s 30 June anti-immigration protests, while the fallout continues to hit foreign-owned businesses and livelihoods. Transport Costs: A viral Potchefstroom clip shows commuters walking past taxis as fares rise, underlining how transport costs are squeezing household budgets. Policy Uncertainty: NWU’s Policy Uncertainty Index marks a decade, with uncertainty still rising and blamed for holding back investment. Vehicle Market: South Africa’s new-vehicle sales hit the strongest June in 19 years, up 15.3% year-on-year, even as exports softened. Tourism & Jobs: Eastern Cape opened the Mthontsi Lodge and Conference Centre, a R31m project expected to boost rural tourism and create lasting employment.

SARS Filing Season: SARS says about R8bn in refunds has already been paid within 72 hours of the 2026 filing season opening, with auto-assessments rolling out for millions—just remember to check your notice and update via eFiling/MobiApp if anything is off. Rand & Rates: The rand edged higher as traders waited for key US jobs data, looking for clues on the Fed’s next move. UIF Governance: Busa withdraws from UIF structures at Nedlac and pulls its reps from the UIF board, demanding an independent administrator and even a forensic probe. Electricity Costs: City Power tariffs for Johannesburg-area customers rise from 1 July, with an average 8.63% increase—while households brace for broader municipal hikes. Tax & Travel Compliance: SARS makes a mandatory online traveller declaration compulsory for most cross-border trips from 1 July. Tech & Investment: Google says it has exceeded $1bn in Africa investment, announcing new cloud/AI plans from Johannesburg. Tourism Boost: International arrivals rise 12.8% (Jan–May 2026), with strong growth from Africa, Europe and Brazil. Migration Shockwaves: The June 30 anti-immigration deadline continues to disrupt business and culture, while Nigeria demands compensation for abandoned assets and reports of violence fuel regional concern. Health Funding: A U.S. PEPFAR HIV funding drawdown for South Africa is condemned as potentially “catastrophic.” Telecom Deal: Vodacom completes its expanded stake in Safaricom (about 55%), strengthening its East Africa push.

Digital Push: Google Cloud’s first Africa summit in Johannesburg says it has topped its $1bn investment target and unveiled new AI, connectivity and skills plans, including an applied AI lab in Ghana and a Soweto digital innovation centre. Migration Shock: South Africa’s June 30 anti-immigration marches were “mostly peaceful” but saw looting in places, with police reporting over 900 arrests and investigations after violence in areas including Alexandra. Cross-Border Fallout: Nigeria says it will seek compensation from South Africa for abandoned businesses and property as citizens flee xenophobic unrest; other countries also urged nationals to stay safe. Manufacturing Pressure: Absa’s PMI showed manufacturing slipping back into contraction in June, with weaker demand and price pressures easing after Middle East oil moves. Local Economy Watch: Joburg faces mounting fiscal strain as the city’s electricity and service problems continue to drive borrowing needs. Trade & Ports: Western Cape agriculture warned against rerouting exports away from the Port of Cape Town, after past diversions hit fruit producers’ costs. Equity & Work: South Africa’s employment equity report flags persistent racial and gender imbalance in top management roles. Business Finance: Safaricom’s 15% stake sale to Vodacom ends state dominance, boosting Vodacom’s control to 55% and delivering a Sh244.2bn cash injection to Kenya’s Treasury.

Electricity debt pressure: City Power warned Johannesburg government defaulters that unpaid bills will end in disconnection, with public hospitals and clinics among the biggest debtors and total arrears now at R13.3bn. Migration unrest and business risk: Anti-illegal immigration protests largely stayed calm in Cape Town overnight, but police responded to isolated attacks on foreign-owned businesses, making 13 arrests; in Johannesburg, thousands rallied against illegal immigration after a June 30 deadline push. SARS refunds: SARS says eligible refunds of R100+ will be auto-processed within about 72 hours during the filing season, while smaller refunds will be paid once balances exceed R100. Sukuk funding: National Treasury says SA plans to tap existing rand-denominated sukuk bonds this fiscal year, after completing foreign-currency funding needs for 2026/27. Cabinet reshuffle: Ramaphosa announced GNU executive changes, including moving a DA agriculture minister to deputy trade and appointing new deputy ministers. Police corruption fallout: SAPS dismissed Brigadier Rachel Matjeng over Matlala-linked misconduct, including gratification, money laundering and dishonesty. Markets: Rand slipped on risk aversion ahead of local manufacturing PMI and vehicle sales data. Energy tech skills: Eskom and Huawei launched a Modernisation Centre to train staff and youth in power ICT, smart grids, cybersecurity and digital operations. Jobs and growth strain: Stats SA reported job losses of 120,000 between March 2025 and March 2026, with declines across food, manufacturing, trade and construction.

Xenophobia & Migration Crackdown: South Africa’s June 30 anti-illegal immigration deadline sparked nationwide protests, with marches in Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban and Cape Town turning violent in pockets—looting, intimidation and assaults on people suspected to be foreign nationals—despite heavy police presence and SANDF deployments to Hillbrow and Durban. Government Response: The state reiterated it will intensify action against illegal immigration and border crime, warning against opportunistic looting, while also urging peaceful protest. Human Impact: Healthcare workers warned of a growing humanitarian crisis as displaced migrants and asylum seekers struggle to access clinics amid fear and blockades. Local Economy: Businesses shut down in multiple cities, and the jobs backdrop is worsening—Stats SA reported formal employment shed 80,000 positions in Q1 2026. Rule of Law/Business: In a separate economic governance win, South Africa’s Constitutional Court upheld the rand-manipulation case outcome, leaving only a few global banks still in the firing line. Markets/Cost Pressures: Fuel price cuts kicked in, bringing relief for consumers and sectors like construction and property. Corporate/Finance: The JSE added two independent directors to strengthen audit and investment oversight.

Anti-immigration protests & security: South Africa braced for the June 30 “deadline” with a major police deployment across cities including Johannesburg, as shops stayed shut and streets were unusually quiet; authorities made arrests linked to unrest and looting allegations, while rights bodies and government urged peaceful, lawful action. Rand & inflation watch: The rand weakened on global risk sentiment ahead of the protest period, while inflation expectations rose, complicating the SARB’s efforts to keep prices near target. Household pressure & debt: TransUnion says consumers are leaning more on existing credit and short-term borrowing as affordability tightens, with banks becoming more selective and younger borrowers taking a bigger share. Fuel relief: Fuel prices are set to drop from midnight into 1 July, driven by lower crude and a steadier rand. Water update (Western Cape): Dam levels improved again, with Cape Town’s system rising to about 74.7% and overall provincial storage to about 76%. Business & jobs: DTIC backed a footwear retail buyer showcase to boost local sourcing, while SASSA warned officials against bypassing biometric grant checks. Policy & health: Parliament advanced the tobacco and vaping bill toward clause-by-clause review, with stricter smoke-free rules on the table.

Immigration Crackdown & Repatriations: South Africa says more than 25,000 foreign nationals have been repatriated ahead of the June 30 anti-immigrant protests, with security units and air support deployed as crowds queue at consulates and transit camps. Police Readiness: Police and the security cluster say the country is on maximum operational readiness, with arrests already made and plans split into pre-, during- and post-operation phases to prevent a repeat of 2021 unrest. Business Impact: Taxi operators (Santaco) insist services will run normally, while Business Against Crime South Africa ramps up support with drones, helicopters, CCTV and K9 units—yet local businesses report booking cancellations and income pressure as migrants flee. Policy Push: Ramaphosa warns protesters to keep demonstrations peaceful and within the law, while labour federation Fedusa urges workers to plan travel and avoid unlawful shutdowns. Regional Finance: SADC ministers of finance meet in Harare to push financial integration, investment cooperation and capital market alignment, chaired by SA’s finance minister. Energy Costs: July’s municipal electricity tariff hike looms after fuel over-recoveries, adding pressure to already strained businesses. Township Economy Spotlight: A review of KasiNomics Unleashed puts a R1-trillion-plus informal economy in the spotlight, highlighting spaza shops, taxis and beauty services as major job and value creators. Cybercrime Alert: Capitec warns of a new fraud scam using fake “suspicious transaction” alerts to trick customers into approving app actions. World Cup Business Angle: Canada’s knockout win over South Africa drives watch-party plans in major cities, including Toronto and beyond.

Police & Rule of Law: Major General Feroz Khan, deputy head of crime intelligence, was shot in Johannesburg and is recovering after surgery, just days before he was due to testify at the Madlanga Commission into corruption in the police and criminal justice system. June 30 Migration Tensions: President Cyril Ramaphosa warned anti-migrant groups they can’t use intimidation or ultimatums to force undocumented foreigners out, as fear grows among migrants and Zimbabweans queue in Cape Town ahead of the deadline. Social Protection Crackdown: Sassa says officials who bypass its biometric system to process fraudulent grants will face criminal charges, dismissal and financial recovery efforts. Energy Transition: Envision Energy signed a 660MWh battery storage supply deal for the Naos-1 hybrid project near Viljoenskroon, aiming to improve dispatchable clean power for private offtakers. Business & Jobs: BAT plans to cut about 9,000 roles globally via 5,500 job cuts and 3,500 outsourcing, while Naspers/Prosus reported Takealot’s first full-year $1bn revenue milestone and profit momentum. City Governance: BLSA says Johannesburg’s decay is driven by political dysfunction and collapsed service delivery, despite high spending, and calls for urgent collaboration to tackle corruption. Human Rights: SAHRC released a report describing systemic sexual violence in schools and calls for stronger prevention, investigation and prosecution.

World Cup Knockouts (SA-Canada): Bafana Bafana kick off the Round of 32 against Canada at 3pm ET in Los Angeles, with Teboho Mokoena returning to the starting XI and the match poised as a historic test after South Africa’s first knockout qualification. CAF Momentum: CAF president Patrice Motsepe says investment in youth, coaching and infrastructure is paying off, with nine African teams reaching the last 32. Migration Tensions in Joburg: Fear is driving migrants to camp outside diplomatic offices and flee ahead of planned 30 June anti-immigration protests, with businesses closing and families scrambling to leave. Policy Watch (Tobacco Bill): Parliament has advanced the Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Control Bill for detailed consideration, aiming to tighten rules on smoking and vaping, including protections for children. Health Breakthrough: Wits Donald Gordon Medical Centre introduces Africa’s first liver perfusion machine to improve organ viability ahead of transplant. Business & Trade: Ramaphosa used the SACU summit to stress that shared infrastructure needs shared investment to unlock private capital.

June 30 Anti-Immigrant Crackdown: South Africa is mobilising nearly 10,000 “ambassadors of safety” and police nationwide ahead of planned marches targeting undocumented migrants, with government warning against violence and organisers insisting protests stay peaceful. Human Impact in Joburg: Hundreds of Malawians gathered outside the Malawi consulate in Johannesburg after being allegedly forced out of homes and jobs ahead of the deadline, with families including pregnant women and very young children waiting for help to return home. Transport Continuity: SANTACO says minibus taxi services will run as usual on June 30, aligning with SAPS guidance to keep commuters moving and avoid disruption. Cape Town Governance Watch: Cape Town has lost its clean audit status after procurement and supply-chain compliance problems, renewing pressure on Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis and the DA. Skills & Jobs Push: The RMI’s Project Dineo targets South Africa’s artisan shortage and youth unemployment by training unemployed youth for the automotive aftermarket. World Cup Business & Sport: South Africa’s Round of 32 match vs Canada is set for Los Angeles as Bafana make history in the knockout stage, while the tournament’s expanded format keeps outcomes unpredictable.

Xenophobia & Business Risk: MTN Group chairman Cyril Ramaphosa says South Africa is “nothing without Africa” and blames state failure and politicians for rising anti-foreigner sentiment, as attacks and displacement continue ahead of the 30 June deadline. Migration Crackdown & Compliance: Home Affairs backlogs are keeping many foreign nationals undocumented, while the inter-ministerial committee says 42,000+ foreign nationals have applied to register businesses and authorities tighten rules for informal traders. Local Government Pressure: UDM’s Bantu Holomisa warns municipal collapse is driven by blurred lines between politics and administration, pushing for professionalised local government ahead of the 4 November elections. City Finance Stress: Johannesburg faces funding strain as Treasury considers withholding billions over an unfunded budget and mounting debt, raising service-delivery fears. Energy & Illicit Fuel: Authorities uncovered a suspected wash plant outside Potchefstroom that strips paraffin markers to sell fake diesel, costing the fiscus an estimated R3.6bn a year. World Cup Meets Crypto: South Africa’s first World Cup knockout appearance against Canada is also a boost for crypto branding, with Kraken signed as FIFA’s official crypto exchange supporter. Competitiveness Signal: Productivity SA says South Africa rose to 54th in the 2026 World Competitiveness Yearbook, with government efficiency improving. Procurement Reality Check: Manufacturers say buy-local efforts are undermined by procurement gaps and uneven enforcement, with localisation not translating into real factory-floor opportunities.

June 30 Tensions: As South Africa braces for anti-immigrant protests, KuGompo City is seeing business shutdowns and allegations against spaza shop owners, with police warning investigations will run their course. Power Crisis: Roodepoort residents in Strubens Valley protested after five days without electricity, saying there’s no clear communication on restoration timelines. Xenophobia Fallout: More than 700 Nigerians remain stranded with only days left, as evacuation funding and aircraft deployment are delayed by administrative bottlenecks. Security Build-Up: Johannesburg-based private security firms are lining up helicopters and monitoring support for the 30 June period, alongside a reported R600m police operation. Labour Law Crackdown: Employment and Labour is rolling out thousands of new inspectors for unannounced workplace visits, raising the stakes for compliance and undocumented-worker checks. Electricity Bills vs Fewer Cuts: Even with improved supply and fewer outages, NERSA-approved tariff hikes are pushing up bills for both Eskom and municipalities. Business Finance: Tharisa secured a N$750m Nedbank asset finance facility to fund its underground mining transition. Governance & Migration Pressure: A coalition of 160 civil society groups accuses government of failing to stop xenophobic violence and displacement ahead of the deadline.

Xenophobia & migration crackdown: South Africa is bracing for June 30 anti-immigrant protests, with Ramaphosa warning groups not to impose a “deadline” and police/security told to crack down on violence, intimidation and hate speech. Humanitarian pressure at borders: Authorities say they’ve processed 15,162 Malawians for repatriation, with thousands still waiting in makeshift camps as conditions worsen. Business impact & public safety: MTN Group chairman Mcebisi Jonas condemned xenophobia, arguing SA is “nothing without Africa” and blaming state failure and corruption—not foreigners—for unemployment and service collapse. Local economy & infrastructure: Eskom reports 406 days without load shedding and a stable winter grid, while the civil construction sector remains under pressure with low confidence in the FNB/BER index. Governance & enforcement: The SIU has clawed back R24.98m from SASCOC after unlawful diversion of NLC grant funds. Tech & telecoms: Vodacom is bundling Amazon Prime for South African customers, and Out There Media and Pulse Africa are partnering to expand digital advertising reach. Markets: Morgan Stanley says the SA outlook is improving as the Iran shock fades, though rand risk remains.

Renminbi Push in Banking: Standard Bank became the first African lender cleared to transact in Chinese yuan via the Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa, aiming to speed up trade settlements and cut dollar reliance. Energy Bills Get Another Lift: With municipal electricity tariffs kicking in from July, households and firms are being urged to treat efficiency like a monthly habit, not a once-off purchase. June 30 Security Focus: President Ramaphosa warned that any attempt to destabilise the country around the 30 June anti-immigration marches will be met with the law, as police tighten security. PIC Under Fire: Parliament scrutiny is intensifying on the Public Investment Corporation after billions linked to its Isibaya Fund reportedly produced complete losses in multiple investments. Trade and Connectivity: Air Europa launched its inaugural Madrid–Johannesburg flight, while Clearstream opened a Kenya market link to deepen access to local bonds. Local Business Watch: Gauteng’s e-Government received R1.9bn for digital services and connectivity, and new national foot-and-mouth disease control measures were approved for clearer outbreak rules. Consumer Safety: South Africa’s National Consumer Commission issued recalls affecting hundreds of Ford Transit/Tourneo Custom and Jeep Grand Cherokee vehicles over safety defects.

Immigration & Protests: South Africa is bracing for June 30 anti-immigration marches as authorities tighten security and warn against violence, with reports saying thousands of migrants are leaving or hiding near embassies amid xenophobia fears. Diplomacy & Foreign Policy: President Ramaphosa defended South Africa’s non-aligned stance in parliament, saying it helps the country engage globally without “enemies” and supports economic interests. Local Cost Pressure: From July 1, municipal tariff hikes will push up water, electricity and property rates, adding strain to already squeezed household budgets. Living Wage Debate: A new living wage proposal puts the “decent” monthly take-home at about R20,000, reigniting pressure on minimum wage and pay fairness. Energy Grid Reality: Grid capacity is being flagged as the real bottleneck for South Africa’s renewable build-out, with calls for faster grid expansion and battery storage. Ports & Logistics: Cape Town Container Terminal received four new hybrid straddle carriers in a R96m upgrade to boost container handling. Crime & Corruption: “Cat” Matlala’s plea deal in the R360m SAPS tender case is in focus as court processes continue. Trade & Business: Ghana is accelerating voluntary repatriation of citizens from South Africa ahead of the June 30 deadline, while Ghana-Turkiye trade links were highlighted at the WCI forum in Accra.